Bulgaria Ski discussion board
Sick to the teeth of detailed amateur forecasts
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posts : 13 (Beginner)Date : 01-16-07 00:42re: Sick to the teeth of detailed amateur forecasts
Benson and Hornster are doing a great job with a real forecast and not some radio station forecast. Keep up the good work.re: Sick to the teeth of detailed amateur forecasts
DW what's the real agenda here - sound like you like to open your mouth then let your belly rumble - the guys here are trying to support the rest of the forum in positive way - it's too easy to diss everyting - how about something contructive from you!re: Sick to the teeth of detailed amateur forecasts
Hmm I am with Mr Walloper here. Sorry Beson and Hornster but your self proclaimed amatuer forcast really get on my tits!!! No offence I am not trying to be nasty and hope you don't take it that way, but it is very tiresome.re: Sick to the teeth of detailed amateur forecasts
Easy Dan....Tiger
re: Sick to the teeth of detailed amateur forecasts
lets wait and see what happens over the next few weeks - we can always blame the weather!!re: Sick to the teeth of detailed amateur forecasts
This is a lively debate and I thought you might like to hear from an expert. I'm an analyst with the European Climate Study which is charting weather and climate change globally (don't be fooled by the European in the title, we pool our data with other sources to develop a global view).
The trouble with long range forecasts is that anything over 7 days is pretty unreliable. Weather is about surface & sea temperature and atmospheric pressure and these variables are just that, variable, ...
The trouble with long range forecasts is that anything over 7 days is pretty unreliable. Weather is about surface & sea temperature and atmospheric pressure and these variables are just that, variable, ...
This is a lively debate and I thought you might like to hear from an expert. I'm an analyst with the European Climate Study which is charting weather and climate change globally (don't be fooled by the European in the title, we pool our data with other sources to develop a global view).
The trouble with long range forecasts is that anything over 7 days is pretty unreliable. Weather is about surface & sea temperature and atmospheric pressure and these variables are just that, variable, to a degree wherby trying to 'predict' what will occur beyond about 7-10 days is as much guesswork as science (ok so it's a little science, just so my colleagues don't get disgruntled).
Eastern Europe is having a very mild winter, thus far, because the air flow is westerly and predominantly formed of low pressure, unstable systems that are forming in the atlantic. Normally, cold air from the north pushes south this time of year and meets this warmer, moist air to bring snow across the region, this year the northerly air flow hasn't been as predominant.
You want a prediction? Ok, based it will get colder in Northern Europe within the next 4 or 5 days. A let up in low pressure systems will allow cold air to move south behind some pretty mild weather, this should mean it will be warm in Eastern Europe for the next week, then turn much colder with a strong likelyhood of some snow as it turns.
Beyond that, it might be cold but it doesn't mean it will snow. My 'guess' would be that there is good chance but remember, it's really as much a guess as any science.
My advice? Invent a new sport or start offsetting carbon because Europe has 5-10 years skiing left if the current trend of climate change remains unchanged, and the likelyhood is that it will gather pace.
Bottom line, if it does snow, enjoy it cos in a few years you may well have to go a long way to find it.
The trouble with long range forecasts is that anything over 7 days is pretty unreliable. Weather is about surface & sea temperature and atmospheric pressure and these variables are just that, variable, to a degree wherby trying to 'predict' what will occur beyond about 7-10 days is as much guesswork as science (ok so it's a little science, just so my colleagues don't get disgruntled).
Eastern Europe is having a very mild winter, thus far, because the air flow is westerly and predominantly formed of low pressure, unstable systems that are forming in the atlantic. Normally, cold air from the north pushes south this time of year and meets this warmer, moist air to bring snow across the region, this year the northerly air flow hasn't been as predominant.
You want a prediction? Ok, based it will get colder in Northern Europe within the next 4 or 5 days. A let up in low pressure systems will allow cold air to move south behind some pretty mild weather, this should mean it will be warm in Eastern Europe for the next week, then turn much colder with a strong likelyhood of some snow as it turns.
Beyond that, it might be cold but it doesn't mean it will snow. My 'guess' would be that there is good chance but remember, it's really as much a guess as any science.
My advice? Invent a new sport or start offsetting carbon because Europe has 5-10 years skiing left if the current trend of climate change remains unchanged, and the likelyhood is that it will gather pace.
Bottom line, if it does snow, enjoy it cos in a few years you may well have to go a long way to find it.
re: Sick to the teeth of detailed amateur forecasts
Cheers PJ, very interesting.re: Sick to the teeth of detailed amateur forecasts
Quote...........The trouble with long range forecasts is that anything over 7 days is pretty unreliable. Weather is about surface & sea temperature and atmospheric pressure and these variables are just that, variable, to a degree wherby trying to 'predict' what will occur beyond about 7-10 days is as much guesswork as science (ok so it's a little science, just so my colleagues don't get disgruntled). - Unquote.
So why does your industry waste MILLIONS of pounds evey year telling us ...
So why does your industry waste MILLIONS of pounds evey year telling us ...
Quote...........The trouble with long range forecasts is that anything over 7 days is pretty unreliable. Weather is about surface & sea temperature and atmospheric pressure and these variables are just that, variable, to a degree wherby trying to 'predict' what will occur beyond about 7-10 days is as much guesswork as science (ok so it's a little science, just so my colleagues don't get disgruntled). - Unquote.
So why does your industry waste MILLIONS of pounds evey year telling us otherwise
PP
So why does your industry waste MILLIONS of pounds evey year telling us otherwise
PP
re: Sick to the teeth of detailed amateur forecasts
hi Benson, thanks for you comments, i looked on this link http://www.wunderground.com/modelmaps/maps.asp?model=GFS&domain=EUnot saying that you said it was relaible but someone did on here, and the model has changed sorry guys but i hope and pray that it will snow but then again their are worst things happening on planet earth as i said erlier in my post as long as we can have fun on holiday then then happy days
Goodnight all
re: Sick to the teeth of detailed amateur forecasts
Hi everybody GOD SPEAKINGALL OF YOU REMEMBER YOU ARE ALL ALIVE and can see if there is no snow there are some that can't enjoy when you can your all a long time dead.
Drink be merry and sing
Cheers
