Bulgaria Ski discussion board

Hi folks,

Sorry for the delay in posting an up to date forecast, but not a great deal has been happening.

Here is the forecast for the next 7 days or so, with an outlook beyond that will probably change.

Firstly, temperatures are going to remain cold for most of the week and probably remaining below zero for the majority of the time. Top station in Borovets may get as warm as minus 2c this week! Temperatures will start to rise slowly from Thursday (21st Feb) onwards and continuing rising into the following week where early indications suggest it could be +7 or 8c by Monday (25th) but that is a little way off yet to be certain.

Now here is the good news…It will start to snow, possible by this evening (17th Feb) and will snow for a few days constantly. Overnight tonight and through to Monday night a moderate amount will fall but as Monday night gets underway then the snow will become heavy to very heavy by Tuesday daytime. By Wednesday morning, the snow will have finished and it should be a lovely, cold and crisp sunny day.

Now for the uncertainty…Thursday sees a break in the weather patterns and a change in the jet stream too. As I said, temperatures are going to steadily rise through until Monday. There is a potential for a huge dump over this period, but the uncertainly is what will fall as snow and what will fall as rain. There is 5 of 6 days, or even more, of unsettled very wet (I mean rain or snow) weather to come from Thursday but is all going to rest on temperatures and altitude. I shall keep an eye on it and report as necessary.

Snow dances needed folks for Thursday !!

Thanks Mark.

Just to elaborate, as Mark has said this week will remain cool/cold with further snowfall likely at all levels.

From thursday temps are set to start rising. A large trough is modelled to develop over italy, with bulgaria being to the east of this trough warmer southerly wids will develop, thus raising temps. Temps currently look like peaking on Monday, probably looking at around 3/4c at resort level in borovets resort, just below 0c at the top of the mountain.

The trough will lead to instability, with associated troughs bringing rain/snow, snowline currently around 1700m based on latest model guidance. Ideally we need the trough over italy to be smaller and further south, with the warmer air staying clear of bulgaria and remaining over the med. The last few runs of the ECM model has shown a slight reduction in the milder air, it being mixed out.

With next weekend still being a long way away in terms of model reliability things are likely to change. Given the pattern so far this year, temps do seem to have been overplayed by the models on occasions. We shall see, but even if we do see a few milder days, things are then likely to cool down from the north again.

Well the latest model charts have warmed things up even more for sunday/monday - could be looking at 8c in resort and above freezing at all levels. Things do then cool down again on tuesday/wednesday back below freezing as the trough over italy sinks and high pressure develops over central europe.

Still lots of time for change and hopefully a slight reduction in projected temps. A trough over Italy really is bad luck, just a good job it is not late march.......suncream and swim shorts would probs be required if it was, keep dancing people!