Bulgaria Ski discussion board
CALLING ALL ECONOMISTS
Author:Mat
posts : 1182 (Master)Date : 12-18-08 15:32re: CALLING ALL ECONOMISTS
I agree that perception of cuts is being priced in now, particularly by hedge funds shorting the pound, but its what the ECB does next that will be more important than what the BoE does because of the existing difference in interest rates. People are going to be piling out of sterling whether the difference is 150 or 250 basis points
re: CALLING ALL ECONOMISTS
The head of the European Central Bank hinted recently that it is unlikely to cut its rate of 2.5% in January, the dollar and the pound is expected to remain weak against the euro.re: CALLING ALL ECONOMISTS
1:1 will be a big psycological barrier. I dont think it will drop 'alot' below that.re: CALLING ALL ECONOMISTS
In the current economic climate there are very little psychological barriers. It may not drop "a lot" below Euro, however the scale of things is not that long ago the euro was worth 67p.re: CALLING ALL ECONOMISTS
I don't think psychology has a lot to do with markets and the computer modelling that drives currency strategies, but I'm happy to grab at any straw....re: CALLING ALL ECONOMISTS
I'm so glad I took out extra euros when I was in Tenerife at the beginning of the month - brought back 125 euro at an exchange rate of 1.18did well there - hang onto the euros between holidays is the answer
re: CALLING ALL ECONOMISTS
Looking at trends is sort of psychology. The fact is that post parity, will the euro be so attractive?Would you put all your savings into euros post parity?
At parity what is more likely 1.1 or 0.9? 1.2 or 0.9? (per pound)
As the pound slides, maybe it will become a good investment, even if the only factor is that it is cheap.
Anyway, enjoy looking at them stats and dont let it spoil your chrimbo...
re: CALLING ALL ECONOMISTS
Cheers all. I bit the the bullet!
re: CALLING ALL ECONOMISTS
In lehmans terms everyone please.....I am away at the end of Jan. Do I buy now or do I buy later? The majority wins.....
Thanks
re: CALLING ALL ECONOMISTS
BOE expected to cuts rates again in jan, therefore with this in mind and the anticipated further decline of the pound vs euro it would be expected that the euro show be on parity with the euro. The result will be that the bank rate for changing to lev should be lower than at the minute. The exchange rate in bulgaria by that stage purely against the strengthening euro would also anticipated to be lower.
If it was me i would change some now and some closer to the time that way spreading the ...
If it was me i would change some now and some closer to the time that way spreading the ...
BOE expected to cuts rates again in jan, therefore with this in mind and the anticipated further decline of the pound vs euro it would be expected that the euro show be on parity with the euro. The result will be that the bank rate for changing to lev should be lower than at the minute. The exchange rate in bulgaria by that stage purely against the strengthening euro would also anticipated to be lower.
If it was me i would change some now and some closer to the time that way spreading the risk.
However you have to make your own decision, rates at the minute are close to parity anyway
If it was me i would change some now and some closer to the time that way spreading the risk.
However you have to make your own decision, rates at the minute are close to parity anyway
