Bulgaria Ski discussion board

Weather update 4/1/10..my last

Mark IOW Author:Mark IOW posts : 547   (Expert)Date : 01-04-10 03:08

Weather update 4/1/10..my last

For the last couple of seasons, along with others, I have been giving weather forecasts for Bulgaria but in particular Borovets.

History will show that they have been quite accurate and in some cases predicting down to "snow is expected Tuesday afternoon" and yes it did snow about 3.30pm !

To do these forecasts I do not look at what it did last year, what it should be doing now or have a guess. I study weather models, ensembles, pressure charts and jet streams to name but a few and ...
For the last couple of seasons, along with others, I have been giving weather forecasts for Bulgaria but in particular Borovets.

History will show that they have been quite accurate and in some cases predicting down to "snow is expected Tuesday afternoon" and yes it did snow about 3.30pm !

To do these forecasts I do not look at what it did last year, what it should be doing now or have a guess. I study weather models, ensembles, pressure charts and jet streams to name but a few and this takes time.

It then becomes very frustrating that after posting these forecasts, within a day or two everyone is asking what the weather is going to be and posting links to about 4 or 5 different web sites that offer highly inaccuarte forecasts. PP only commented recently that a web site told everyone is was going to snow...AFTER IT STARTED!

It gets to the point quite often that these sites are building peoples hopes up and I dont have the time to be able to put them straight because of my increasing lack of it !

I am not saying by any means that my forecasts are the be all and end all of weather predictions, I just want you to understand the frustration it causes me.

To that end, this is my last forecast.

For the next 5 days or so, the area is not looking too great for snow. There will be some snow Tuesday into Wednesday but not huge amounts. The problem then is that high pressure to the south of Bulgaria will bring up warm air from North africa and this will produce warm temperatures until the weekend. Temperatures at 1700m ASL will be above freezing at around +5c.

As with any forecast, trying to predict after about 7 days is very hit and miss but things will start to get colder as next weekend (9th/10th) progresses and there is a good chance of snow for a couple of days.

This could all change because the jet streams are not behaving how they should this time of year so fingers crossed.

I hope this helps and if the weather ends up like the above, then job done and if it doesn't...don't blame me, Im a builder and it was only an estimate lol



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OldieSki Author: posts : 13   (Beginner)Date : 01-04-10 09:13

re: Weather update 4/1/10..my last

MARK IOW - Don't stop posting your forecasts!!.....
Your 2009/10 projections have proved to be the most consistent by far and have provided a lot of posters with sound advice and, in some cases, white stuff excitement!!!

I'm sure the likes of PP are just having a gentle wind-up with the type of same day forecast posts you mentioned - don't take them seriously and have a chuckle just like we do!

Stick with it - you know it makes sense!

Wink
Hornster Author: posts : 13   (Beginner)Date : 01-04-10 10:36

re: Weather update 4/1/10..my last

I know how you feel Mark. It was for these same reasons why Benson and myself stopped providing weather forecasts on this forum...they were not appreciated.
OldieSki Author: posts : 13   (Beginner)Date : 01-04-10 11:06

re: Weather update 4/1/10..my last

Whoah! - Hornster, Mark IOW and also Benson....

Its a new year - no need to be deflated!

Last week I made a recommendation that all weekly forecasts should be placed under ONE thread (funnily enough called THIS WEEK'S FORECAST W/C XXX.....)
Still think this is a good idea - what about it?

Keep the faith boys!

Very Happy
Mat Author:Mat posts : 1182   (Master)Date : 01-04-10 12:18

re: Weather update 4/1/10..my last

lol, full of the milk of human kindness there Mickey.
damo Author:damo posts : 651   (Expert)Date : 01-04-10 13:07

re: Weather update 4/1/10..my last

I'll take over from here. When i was in spain last year i was able to predict sun and blue skies at least a week ahead. Think i must have the gift. Huge dump predicted for the weekend of the 16th. My ensembles point to there the odd dusting before then but temps getting warmer before the big freeze hits.
Fiona Author: posts : 13   (Beginner)Date : 01-04-10 13:21

re: Weather update 4/1/10..my last

Mickey.........u can be so blunt and straight to the point most times Wink............but this one made me smile! Very Happy

Fiona Very Happy
team snowfish Author: posts : 13   (Beginner)Date : 01-04-10 13:24

re: Weather update 4/1/10..my last

well hello children!!!! (hows things PP) the weather will do whatever it wants and we can only hope for the best!!!! there are no guarantees the only time you can be guaranteed super snow is if you head to the rocky mountains, (America or canada) or to one of the many glaciers on the planet. the other reason I'm posting today is to let you guys know that there will always be nay-sayers, doubting whatever you say; eg I was sitting in a hotel in pamps one night at the end of Jan three years ...
well hello children!!!! (hows things PP) the weather will do whatever it wants and we can only hope for the best!!!! there are no guarantees the only time you can be guaranteed super snow is if you head to the rocky mountains, (America or canada) or to one of the many glaciers on the planet. the other reason I'm posting today is to let you guys know that there will always be nay-sayers, doubting whatever you say; eg I was sitting in a hotel in pamps one night at the end of Jan three years ago looking out of the window at the fresh snow falling in front of my own eyes. went online posted whot i was seeing and for the next couple of days got quite alot of posts saying things like I'm looking at the web cam and don't see anything he must be lying. this was the end of me trying to help to lift peoples spirits (with the actual realtime truth. not predictions of what might be !!!) so I now just sit back and let whatever happens happen. we are booked to ski pamps at the end of jan this year and hope the weather is good to us. if not then it becomes a party hard holiday not a ski holiday.

pete(snowfish hunter) team snowfish. Very Happy snow / Booze no snow.

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nightmuffy Author:nightmuffy posts : 1359   (Master)Date : 01-04-10 13:49

re: Weather update 4/1/10..my last

The weather today...in Bansko...
Vested interest so probably all lies, eh Mickey Wink
Beautiful sunshine, cold, a light dusting from yesterdays snow...
The queues are still horrendous, dunno why they come because its sooooooooooo terrible Crying hehehehehehe

Steve C Booze
Pamporovo Pete Author: posts : 13   (Beginner)Date : 01-04-10 17:45

re: Weather update 4/1/10..my last

Oldski - you read that completely wrong! My post SUPPORTED the like of MarkIOW and mocked the websites that forecast no snow only to change it when it did snow.

MarkIOW has done a sterling job with his contributions and I for one hope he continues.

Cool