After all the comments and accusations of lastnight and this morning I agreed to post once a day and relay, to those who feel my weather updates are usefull, what the days weather model update is saying.
Well, as of 6pm today the weather models are forecasting:
1) a possibility of a dusting of new snow on the 20th January, BUT, the temperatures look like they could rise around the same time (+- 10'C), so that snow may fall as rain OR it will fall as snow but then melt fairly soon ...
After all the comments and accusations of lastnight and this morning I agreed to post once a day and relay, to those who feel my weather updates are usefull, what the days weather model update is saying.
Well, as of 6pm today the weather models are forecasting:
1) a possibility of a dusting of new snow on the 20th January, BUT, the temperatures look like they could rise around the same time (+- 10'C), so that snow may fall as rain OR it will fall as snow but then melt fairly soon afterwards.
2) Temperatures look to be around the 3'C mark until the 20th but then start dropping considerably from about the 26th onwards.
3) SNOW - the various models are not fully agreeing with each other lately as the HP and LP systems keep shifting slightly, making the various runs hopeful that this will herald the start of the snow (finally) only for the HP to shift back again forcing the LP further away i.e. no snow!
BUT, at this stage things are looking fairly confident for a decent amount of snow between 24th January to 1st February. However, that doesn't mean that there will be heavy snowfalls throughout those dates but it does mean that, according to the 6pm run/model, things are looking good for snow between those dates however heavy or light it will be.
I'm still confident that I will be skiing on a decent layer of fresh snow when I arrive in Bansko on the 27th January!
Assuming that I don't get shot down for posting this thread, i will be happy to post an update tomorrow evening telling you what tomorrows model is forecasting and any changes.
NB - I only post what the models are saying, nothing more and nothing less, so don't shoot the messanger.
thanks hornster, your postings make interesting reading.
Will you keep posting when youre out there please. We are going on the 11th so are keeping our fingers crossed for snow. (that is of course if BA havent gone on strike, we may spend the week at heathrow!!!!)
Thanks Mr Hornster
i will look forward to your updates i am not going to Bansko until the 24 th Feb so i thinks all the snow will fall in february.
James